Weighing up the arguments for and against Ian Watson

The timing is most likely strategic ahead of the Fan’s Forum on Thursday, but the fact remains – board backing or not – that a large portion of the fans are extremely, vocally unhappy.

Therefore, the big question; are the board right to publicly back Watson, or do they have a decision to make? Let’s break it down….

The case, then for the defence – what reasons could there be for backing a manager with such a poor start to his Rochdale tenure? 

When Watson first took the reins, it was stated by co-chairs Cameron Ogden and Simon Gauge that he was a man who they had “been tracking for some time” and was their main target.

This suggests they had more than done their due diligence.

Furthermore, speaking on the Rochdaleafc.com Podcast, Ogden confirmed that Watson was a man they had been watching for a while in any case, as they fully expected a coach of the calibre of Jim McNulty to make the move up the pyramid sooner rather than later.

When that panned out, the move was swiftly made for Watson’s services.

With all of these points considered, the board were confident that he was the man for the job, and the man to lead the club forward as it entered its latest three-year plan to gain promotion.

Sacking Watson now would surely be a suggestion they appointed the wrong man, or at least a firm whack of the panic button.

Our lengthy injury list was mentioned in the board statement, and there is no getting away from it.

As many as 10 first-team players are currently injured, many of whom we shouldn’t expect back any time soon.

How can any manager be expected to generate momentum or mould a successful first XI when the physio table can arguably field a better one?

Our biggest issue so far has been our defence, and this is no surprise when the likes of Laurence Maguire, Sam Sherring, Ethan Ebanks-Landell, Sam Beckwith and Bryant Bilongo have all been or continue to be out.

Our squad is essentially without a left back and with Kane Taylor having to deputise there, it is no surprise we have looked leaky.

When the oldest player in the back line is the 25-year-old Dan Moss filling in at centre-back (at least based on his time at the club so far) and boasting little Football League experience, who is expected to be the one to drag the defence up by its collar?

Midfield has also been an issue and while Baba Adeeko has done well since coming into the team and Ed Francis does appear to be first choice, injuries leave Watson with few options should he need to make changes.

This may seem an odd point to have in his defence, but bear with me…

The argument of many fans who want Watson out is that he lacks the required managerial experience.

However, Watson has more experience as a first-team manager than Keith Hill and Jim McNulty combined had at the time they both took over as permanent Dale boss.

Yes, he does have limited managerial experience compared to, say, Jim Bentley and John Coleman, but clearly that isn’t always the answer…

Whilst his time as a first-team manager is limited to his time at South Shields, it is worth pointing out that in just one season, he took a team from the bottom eight to the top two, scoring nearly a century of goals and conceding nearly half that.

Yes, that is two divisions below League Two, but the level would also be reflected in the players at the club and in the opposition.

Experience does not always translate to success as a manager.

The case for the prosecution now – a case that appears to be growing stronger with every poor result…

This is quite a simple one – we have lost four out of our opening five league games and have won just one game in his time at the club so far (including pre-season but not including the penalty shoot-out victory over Tranmere).

Teams played include relegation favourites Newport and Crawley, with games against much-fancied Walsall and then a derby with Oldham to come.

Should we lose those games, the clamour for Watson’s head could well be deafening.

Results can be put down to mitigating circumstances (luck, refereeing decisions, the phase of the moon) should performances be acceptable.

By all accounts, they haven’t been.

Shrewsbury aside, there hasn’t been a marked improvement game-on-game, and even that was followed by a complete and utter capitulation against Gillingham.

Watson’s critics will also argue that he is yet to show the capability of inspiring his players or making the tactical changes required to fix issues.

Likewise, his lack of decisions in-game has baffled some fans – when needing a goal, bringing Ian Henderson or Mani Dieseruvwe on as late as the 88th minute makes little sense.

While five games is a small sample size, it can be argued that he hasn’t been proactive with making changes so far. 

This is not in itself a reason to change a manager – there were many calls for McNulty to lose his job as recently as the 24/25 play-off campaign, and that would have been a monumental mistake as history tells us.

That being said, once the tide starts to turn, it is incredibly hard to rectify or ignore.

‘Project 5000’ is a key factor in the Ogdens’ vision for a sustainable future so if more and more fans turn their back on the club if form doesn’t pick up, despite a huge increase in season ticket sales, it may get to the point where action becomes unavoidable.

The injuries being suffered are also worth questioning.

Of the 10, Will Jenkins, Casey Pettit and Ryan East all sustained injuries in matches and these cannot be avoided.

However, Ebanks-Landell, Sherring, Maguire, Cian Hayes and potentially more were seemingly injured in training.

Is this an issue with fatigue having had a shortened pre-season? We are not the only club to have started the season early (York, Tranmere and Crawley also played in the Carabao Cup preliminary round) and not the only club to have had their pre-season disrupted due to a change in manager (Christian Fuchs left Newport a full 17 days after Watson was announced at Dale). Could the issue lie within training methods?

It has been suggested that we are signing injury-prone players, which is certainly true of Maguire and arguably Sherring – Watson’s two most experience defensive signings.

If this is the case, then this would surely lie at his door – could recruitment have been better?

The statement has at least made the board’s stance clear for now and it is welcome amongst the noise.

But should things not start to turn around, their resolve will be tested.

Things have to change and fast, or the goalposts for the three-year plan will less have to be shifted as melted down and reshaped entirely.